Wilson Center holds forum on prospects for an Iranian nuclear deal

The Woodrow Wilson Center held a forum on January 11 entitled, “Prospects for an Iranian Nuclear Deal,” with an expert on the subject, Gary Samore, Director of Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, serving as the main speaker

Iran is still a few years away from being able to produce nuclear weapons, Samore said. He doesn’t expect that it could happen until somewhere between 2010 and 2015.

Regarding the political dimension of the situation, Samore, said this comes down to a clash of international interests rather than simply good versus evil is not about good or evil. Balance of power is usually how such a clash is solved, he maintained. Samore said that when the United States invaded Iraq in 2003, Iran became fearful, but now the balance of power has shifted and Iran realizes that it holds a good position in the region. Now, with oil at such a high price, Tehran has the ability to absorb its domestic support.

Nether Russia or China wants Iran to build nuclear weapons, Samore said, but he argues that since they have come to terms with the fact that Pakistan has nuclear capabilities they can do the same with Iran. However, Samore argued that the Western powers have another view, and do not trust Iran. As the situation stands now, though, China and Russia will continue to buy oil and trade with Iran, he stated.

On the topic of resolving the predicament with Iran, Samore stressed the importance of correctly packaging the deal. All suggestions are going to be read in Tehran, which will make it more difficult and weaken the U.S. position, he said. Furthermore, any talks with Tehran, will be viewed by American allies as weakening the US position, and indicating an acceptance of Iran. In addition, Samore maintained that it is not even certain that a deal is possible, saying that Iran will not settle for less then what they started with. Given these potential outcomes, there are different ways of approaching the deal, with the removal of sanctions one option. However, if the U.S. chooses to move in the other direction, anti-American hostility could increase.

Samore stressed that the U.S. must collaborate with other nations to apply pressure on Tehran, but added that this will be difficult as Iran is privy to this strategy. He also cautioned that with negotiations going forward, Iran will make promises that it will not keep. According to Samore, a large burden rests on the administration of the next American president, with the Bush administration now in its “lame duck” period.

Explaining Iran’s view of the situation, Samore said that Tehran asserts that it needs nuclear power programs for regional security. However, he stated that the country must not be allowed to develop these programs. “We can not trust their intentions,” Samore cautioned. Additionally, if Iran were to obtain nuclear weapons, other countries in the region such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt would want to do the same. This sentiment might even extend to countries such as South Korea and Taiwan, Samore added.

Samore also explained that Israel feels the most threatened by Iran’s nuclear programs and are in favor of U.S. intervention. As of today, an Israeli attack on Iran is more likely than an U.S. one, he said.

Wilson Center hosts president of Southern Sudan for update on peace agreement

The Woodrow Wilson Center on November 7 hosted the event, “Sudan Update: Is the Comprehensive Peace Agreement Holding?” Present to speak was His Excellency Salva Kiir Mayardit, First Vice President of Sudan and President of the Government of Southern Sudan.

Mayardit said that Sudan has faced critical issues in implementing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). The differences between the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the National Party is a major issue; it has resulted in the SPLM leaving the Government of National Unity in protest a few months ago

In the transition to democracy, Sudan needs to do many things that are not currently being done, His Excellency said. When it comes to the transformation process, the National Congress Party (NCP) is dragging their feet in accomplishing anything, Mayardit said, adding that this has served to water down the CPA. He also said that a major problem has been the lack of free and fair elections.

Mayardit also argued that any party from the south other than the SPLM would not accept the CPA, and the same goes for the north, thereby making it seem like there is almost a dictatorship within the country.

One of the major challenges facing peace in Sudan, Mayardit said, is the issue of oil and border definition. Oil revenue is supposed to be shared between the north and the south; however, the north has not been splitting its revenue in this way. Additionally, because the borders are hard to define, he said, they keep shifting southward to where more oil is located.

His Excellency also discussed the current situation in Darfur. He said that “Darfur is the new national identity of Sudan,” demonstrating that the country is a multi-ethnic rather than Islamic state. He also compared the current situation in the region to what Southern Sudan faced during the civil war.

When asked about the role of women in Sudan, Mayardit gave the floor to a female member of his delegation. She explained that the SPLM upholds the values and principles of justice and equality. In regards to the peace talks for Darfur, she said that if no Darfurian women had been included, the Southern Sudanese women would have given the President a hard time.

The relationship of the United States with Sudan was also brought up. Mayardit said the U.S. has been supportive of the CPA, and has given support to litigations. He added that the U.S. gave relief to the people of Sudan during the war. Regarding the U.S. role in Darfur, Mayardit said that America is not responsible for the situation because it is a Sudanese problem. He believes the U.S. should assist in whatever way the country is able.

The CPA is struggling, Mayardit said, adding that external pressure to form the peace agreement can cause the people of Sudan to feel as if they do not have ownership of it. However, achieving a sustainable resolution to the conflict in Sudan is critical, Mayardit stressed. “Peace in Sudan is key to peace in all of Africa, and the whole world,” he said.